A couple days ago Proton published the following tweet:
This year is democracy’s biggest test in history. Here are our seven predictions for the internet in 2024.
I read those predictions with great interest and I wanted to analyze them one by one.
My take on the predictions
1. Increased Targeted Censorship
As governments increase censorship, internet accessibility decreases, particularly for social media, messaging apps, and critical news sites.
The notion that social media, messaging apps, and crucial news websites will become harder to access is particularly alarming, yet unsurprisingly true, especially in regions where freedom of speech is more a luxury than a right. My perspective aligns with this forecast; I believe it’s not just a prediction but a reality unfolding before our very eyes. Countries with already stringent control over media and internet content will likely tighten their grip further, making it even more challenging for their citizens to reach beyond the curated narratives. This move not only stifles the exchange of ideas but also entrenches the barriers to free speech, making it a privilege enjoyed by a few rather than a fundamental right for all. The digital divide deepens, not just technologically but ideologically, pushing us towards a world where access to information is increasingly becoming a battleground.
2. VPN Bans
VPNs are one of the most effective tools for bypassing targeted censorship, turning them into targets for bans themselves. We expect more #VPN bans in countries where the democratic process has weakened.
This is very similar to the previous one. I do think that also this one is going to be true, but I think it will be more difficult to censor specific VPNs and it will always be possible to access a VPN to avoid censorship.
3. More Internet Shutdowns
Internet shutdowns are severe censorship where the entire internet is turned off for a particular population.
This predictions seems a little bit too drastic to me. I think that this could happen in some states where there are geopolitical issues (like wars or Coup d’état), but I don’t think there will be a significant increase of Internet shutdowns.
4. Disinformation Campaigns
With the help of #AI, #deepfakes are becoming more convincing and are being used by fraudsters and official campaigns alike. Unfortunately, regulation is constantly playing catch-up with technology. Better AI regulation, public education on media literacy, and access to trustworthy, independent media are required to combat this issue.
The way deepfakes are getting better and fooling more people is kind of scary. It’s like we’re stepping into a world where seeing isn’t believing anymore. Fraudsters and even legit campaigns are using this tech, and it feels like we’re always a step behind in keeping things in check.
Honestly, I’m pretty worried about it. The whole “we need better rules for AI, teach people how to spot fakes, and get some reliable news sources” bit is spot on. But let’s be real: finding a quick fix to stop the flood of fake news feels like a long shot. Tech’s moving super fast, and catching up to it, let alone getting ahead, seems like it’s going to take ages. We’re in for a bumpy ride, trying to figure out what’s real and what’s just really convincing make-believe.
5. Foreign Influencers
Some countries use a network of fake accounts to sow discord, spread influence, and harass foreign politicians and businesses.
I am pretty confident that there are countries that try to influence other countries through the Internet; actually I don’t know if using “fake accounts” is the most popular way to do that, but the problem stays the same. The Internet is a powerful instrument that can be used for doing both good and bad stuff.
Influencing the outcome of, for example, an election can really change some balance in the world; so this is one of the most important predictions to look upon.
6. Increased Surveillance
The internet is already awash in companies trying to monitor you, from #Meta to #Google, and governments are just as thirsty for data. #E2E encrypted services are crucial as they are the only way to keep your information away from the constant surveillance of governments and companies.
This is particularly interesting since in the last week a big scandal broke out in Italy (the country I live in) because it was found out that a huge numbers of VIPs (politicians, CEOs, influencers and so forth) were under surveillance for unknown reasons.
Ensuring confidentiality is one of the key points of cybersecurity (the CIA triad), so it is particularly important to make sure that our communications are not intercepted (especially if there are no reasons behind this surveillance).
7. Rise of the Splinternet
Governments that limit access to foreign websites lead to a #splinternet, a fractured online experience.
Proton’s take on how governments blocking foreign websites could lead to a “splinternet” really makes sense to me. It’s this idea that the internet, which was supposed to connect us all, is actually getting chopped up into pieces. And the sad part? It’s not even a new thing, but it’s like now more countries are getting the memo on how powerful the internet is. It’s like they’re spooked by it and think the best move is to just block everything foreign.
I totally see where they’re coming from with this prediction. It’s as if some countries are hitting the panic button, trying to control what their people see online more than ever. It’s kind of ironic, right? The internet was this big promise of a global village, and now we’re seeing it turn into a bunch of gated communities. It’s definitely a trend that’s picking up steam, and it’s not looking great for anyone who was hoping for a more connected world.
Conclusions
We’ve just taken a wild ride through some pretty intense predictions about the internet’s future. From the shadow of censorship to the murky waters of deepfakes, and finally to a world sliced up by digital borders, it’s been a journey. But, as we’ve seen, there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel — a vision of an internet that’s open and free for all. What do you guys think? Did these predictions hit close to home, or do you see things going a different way? Drop your thoughts and let’s chat about where we’re all headed in this digital universe!
